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Where are We heading now?

November 23, 2007

support-broken-nov-23-2007.png So it has happened! Recall a chart I shared on Nov 2, here is it how it looks. I have now changed my positions to bearish (as if I am trading, I mentioned a few days ago that I am chilling-out and will trade only for fun during Dec and Jan). But hey, if you do get a bearish market, then don’t forget to mention that you were told first hand here at OptionPundit. Russell 2000 ($RUT) has already broken that level S&P500(SPX) is only a few points away from breaking that low. Nasdaq is little farther. A technical rebound may happen, but I will not be fooled by it till there is really a solid buying in the market.

My feeling is that gold will continue to rise-n-fall till Dec futures expiration. It will attempt $850 and may fall again as folks may not want to exercise options. I, however, think that it may cross $850 after December options expiration and $950-960 will be the next stop (ok gimme 10-15points leeway). How soon, I don’t know.

By the way, these days my mailbox is filled or spammed by all sorts of advisories that promises to make me fortunes. A gazillion % returns by paying peanuts (a few of those are published on my website as well via Google) and I am sure those who have interests in stocks and options, and have an e-mail, are feeling no different. I was trying to verify one of the Motley fools recent recommendations, tiresome long message and I was sick of it. No matter how much I try to save myself, but still. In process of decoding I came to know about Stock GumShoe, an excellent blog by Travis for nailing down “those” newsletters. Check out his website and you will be surprised with what he has got. Travis has done wonderful job in decoding all these “fishy” and in fact he has a tracking sheet as well. So next time you get “tempting” mail, either send to him or check out his blog. you may find your answers there.

There are other interesting things going on. Now you may call me too naive, but I have withdrawn my plan to deposit any cash to Citibank (oops….what did I say). Yes, I am as I don’t want to queue-up if there is panic for any reasons with Citibank related to sub-prime (Recall what happened a few months back when my English friends had to queue up in front of the Rock solid bank, The Bank of NorthenRock). I know, Citibank is different from Northern Rock, and surely it is different from New Century, American Homes, Countywide Financials and yes it has lot of assets and all the talks. But hey, the difference between Citibank and my local govt bank is only a fraction of % on interest. The difference in interest won’t even pay for my one day time, taxi fares to go and latte’s during queuing-up. Sounds crazy, let it be. I still own 1,190 shares of Enron and 45 shares of Worldcom!

Net where are we heading- solid fundamental stocks, US exporters (Due to weakening dollar), alternate energy and the shining gold. I am not a big fan of shipping right now as Baltic Dry Index seems to be topping (really?) and I am not sure if this is telling me a slowdown in global trades or just a settling time after running so much.

Trade carefully, trade profitably, OP

8 Comments

  • Dayton says:

    Guessing market direction is an old time profession. Very few people do it right. Since 1933 market has gone up between Thanksgiving day and January 5th and it has happened 80% of the time. I will bet my odds on that and trade accordingly.

  • OptionPundit says:

    20% of the times, those “80%” thing (not necessarily Thanksgiving and Jan 15) have gone wrong. When something is known to everyone, money is made by giving them surprises because no one expects that.

    There is nothing wrong in your approach. We have different perspectives and it doesn’t matter which one is right or wrong. What matters most is “The bottom-line”. As long as we make money, by either perspective, it is the right approach.

    So to explain more :
    Being bearish but still make money from any rise of the market is equal to Being bullish but still make money from the market’s fall.

    But if someone is playing straight direction and if it happens otherwise, markets will spend no time in punishing them.

    Have fun trading, OP

  • Wai Ling says:

    Ya, fully agree that there is no right or wrong answer as long as we make money from the market.

    I just attended the recent Millionaire Mind Intensive at Singapore Expo by T Harv Eker. During the seminar, Harv mentions that we would rather be not right but rich or not right but happy. We don’t want to be right but poor or right but unhappy.

    Cheers!
    Wai Ling

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