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Is the Current Market Rally a Trap? Hidden Opportunities in The Market Chaos

options trading May 08, 2024
Is the Current Market Rally a Trap

Here is your this week's market insiders' scoop, beginning with brief version of key economic events that transpired a volatile week. I shared detailed charts during the Money Monday live streaming which is now available to view.

(this is delayed version of the newsletter, join now to receive it in real time. It's free.)

Here are the main macro factors that are currently driving day to day market action.

  • Inflation is still a problem. Recent data shows inflation isn't decreasing as quickly as hoped.
  • The Federal Reserve isn't changing course yet. They kept interest rates the same, signaling they might raise them later if things don't improve.
  • The job market is confusing. Some reports show higher labor costs (bad for inflation), others point to a slowdown in hiring (which could help with inflation).
  • Companies are doing surprisingly well. Most companies releasing their financial reports are beating expectations and remain optimistic about the future.

The most important news I think is that there first Increase in EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q2 2024 Since Q4 2021! The picture below how S&P500 companies are performing from earning wise.

 

Investors Are Falling for This Trap – Are You Next?

Do you believe the old saying that it's smart to buy low?

While there's some truth to it, there's a dark side to investing that preys on this exact thinking. It's a tempting trap that lures investors into thinking they can rescue a losing trade, only to see their losses snowball out of control.

Read more to find out what is this trap?

 

What’s Moving the Markets?

What matters to us as Stocks & Options traders is how the markets move during the week. And with FOMC, NFP data and AAPL earning announcement, markets had plenty to be worried about and index moved from -2.3% to a solid rally on Friday, closing positive for the week.

The bullish trend is still in tact except for the 50sma as resistance on the way up.

Last week I shared Micron Technology (Symbol: MU) as a potential bullish trade idea. It moved up and if you opened a Put Credit Spread (PCS) that must be in profit now. I continue to be bullish on that but moved my SL to $110.

Another trading idea Apple (Symbol: AAPL) did very well as well. I continue to think that leading into WWDC’24 next month, AAPL still has some room to move, though Friday’s price action wasn’t great. Here is how Michael booked over $3000 in profits.

 

 

Interactive Brokers (Symbol: IBKR) is another stock that I highly suggested in Nov last year (idea was simple, thousands of TD Ameritrade clients needed to move to some other broker) and it’s been rocking since then. Now it’s setting up for another bullish run but at the same time it’s stretched. The ideal entry is already triggered. Here is pictorial description. I discussed this in more details during the Money Monday and also shared a specific trade set-up.

 

 

Community Chat

As a lot of ex-OP students requested if we could re-open the entry for past alumni with a special offer for Smart Traders’ Club. We offered an exclusive offer and a warm welcome to those who joined.

Our live chat room (Between the Bells) is buzzing with daily trade ideas, questions and/or comments from those who want to make the most of their training programs.

 

 

It is great to see students transforming into independent traders. They learn the key strategies, rules and then adopt to their own style. Ooi generated +30% in in 2 days using 5D trading strategy.

 

 

Condor Mastery Circle, Value Investing Club and Inner Circle are all doing great. Our pick Pfizer (Symbol: PFE) delivered great sets of numbers and it rallied too.

I might be opening 2 seats for Inner Circle, watch out for my email.

I will be organizing an IBKR desktop masterclass soon for those who want to understand more about IBKR. It will be announced separately. Don’t miss that.

 

Your Turn:

I would like to hear from you if this length of the newsletter is okay for you? Do you want it shorter? How did you like this week’s scoop? Do you have topics you would like us to consider? Hit reply and let me know.

 

Rooting for your success,

Manoj Kumar

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