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Using Probability in Options Trading


On a weekend afternoon, I received a phone call from one of my mentees who was learning to trade options using a high probability options trading system.

He was a diligent trader who always analysed his trades after they closed and made it a point to read up on trading. This time around, he had a few losing options trades in S&P500. After analysing his trades, though, he couldn’t identify what errors he had made which had led to losses. So, he decided to give me a call to seek my help.

Probability in Trading

We talked for a while on the phone, and I spent a good amount of my time understanding his trades. I realised soon that there were no errors on his part!

He had a workable trading approach that provided good results with a nice payoff and winning ratios. He followed his rules accordingly, and his execution was perfect. The losses that had happened were simply because- there were economic situations outside his control, and markets can remain irrational longer than one...

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